Quick pulse for Tuesday, November 3. US midterms are today. Someone defrosted supermarket freezers in seven European countries overnight on Sunday, Finland included. US crude had its worst day since July. One analyst ran Musk’s 2027 GPU plan against Nvidia’s forecast and the numbers don’t fit. Apple is back on top. Claude Code now refuses to clone games.

Europe’s freezers got hacked again#

Three weeks after hundreds of French supermarkets were hit, attackers went after refrigeration controllers again overnight into Monday. This time it reached seven countries: Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Sweden, per BankInfoSecurity and Xinhua.

  • Same trick. The controllers were switched to defrost, so cold rooms slowly warmed up. In the Netherlands at least 17 businesses were hit, mostly butchers and small neighborhood shops, per NOS. One frozen-goods warehouse that should sit at -20°C was found at -10°C.
  • Default passwords. Danfoss, the Danish maker, says the hit units were on the open internet with the factory password. It warned customers on Oct 13 to take them offline. “The majority of stores took measures at the time, but a small number did not,” a spokesperson told NOS.
  • Finland. Kesko says a few smaller K-food stores had temperature problems overnight. S-ryhmä saw none, per STT. The National Cyber Security Centre says it found “a few dozen” exposed units in Finland after the French attacks, warned owners, and only a few are still visible.
  • Sweden. In some ICA stores the attackers pushed temperatures up to 50°C, per STT.

Nobody has claimed it. Nobody has linked it to AI either. It didn’t need AI. A security firm, Previdian, logged login attempts on a Danfoss honeypot on Oct 27 using the default supervisor password “12345”, per Security.NL.

If you run a shop, a restaurant or anything with a networked cooling controller: get it off the public internet, change the password, update the firmware. Danfoss AK-SM 800A units need R4.3.1 or later, per Claroty.

Oil drops 7.6% on Iran deal talk#

Brent fell 7.6% on Monday to settle at $104.77. WTI lost 7.4% to $96.46, its biggest one-day drop since July 27, per CNBC.

Why: Trump said Iran wants to “make a deal and that could happen.” Iran’s president said Tehran wants to solve problems through dialogue. Oil had gained more than 10% in October because traders were pricing a strike on Iran after today’s vote.

Don’t read it as the end of the energy shock. Brent is still above $100. Iran’s foreign minister wants sanctions lifted and the blockade ended first, and its supreme leader told the armed forces on Saturday to meet any threat with a “geographically unrestricted response.” TD Securities’ Ryan McKay says headlines alone won’t erase the risk premium while tanker and Houthi attacks continue. Oil has sold off on peace rumors before in this war and spiked again after.

Milk Road’s macro index improved to -1.03 from -1.32, still risk-off. Its read: markets need confidence the energy crisis is ending. Jobs report Friday.

Musk’s 2027 GPU bill is bigger than Nvidia’s growth#

Bar chart: Wall Street expects $292B of Nvidia sales growth in FY2028; extra SpaceX spend would be $205B at 7 GW or $325B at 10 GW

Source: StreetSignal estimates via Benzinga.

InvestAnswers flagged the SpaceX compute ramp this morning: “Hyperscalers are befuddled.” The near-term target is real. SpaceX’s CFO guided 2.5 to 3 GW of compute by Dec 31, up from 1.7 GW at the end of September. Deutsche Bank models about 2.7 GW exiting December.

The new angle is the bill. StreetSignal, via Benzinga, priced Musk’s 2027 plan with Nvidia’s own numbers:

  • Nvidia says each gigawatt of Vera Rubin is about $40B of revenue.
  • Wall Street expects Nvidia’s sales to grow about $292B in fiscal 2028, to roughly $703B.
  • If SpaceX adds 7 GW, it buys about $280B of gear. Net of the ~$75B it already spends, that’s $205B of new Nvidia sales, about 70% of the expected growth.
  • If it adds 10 GW, as Musk plans, that’s $325B. More than all of Nvidia’s expected growth. Every other customer would have to buy less.

They won’t. Nvidia’s CFO says the five biggest clouds will lift capex from $800B this year to $1.3T in 2027. So either Musk builds less, others get fewer GPUs than they expect, or the forecasts are wrong. StreetSignal’s question: if all this is right, why does Nvidia trade at about 13x next year’s profit?

Power is the other wall. Boom Supersonic, the company building a supersonic airliner, now pitches Superpower, a 42 MW natural-gas turbine for AI data centers. Its Colorado factory is already making parts. Targets: first deliveries mid-2027, about 250 MW in 2027, 1 GW a year by 2028 (25 turbines) and 2 GW by 2029. Its launch customer Crusoe walked away from a $1.25B, 29-turbine order in September. And United’s CEO Scott Kirby says the airliner won’t make its 2029 date. Boom’s whole 2027 output is a fraction of what SpaceX alone wants to switch on this quarter.

Apple is the safe AI trade now#

Apple closed Friday worth $5.03T, ahead of Nvidia at $4.93T, per Bloomberg. Apple fell 1.2% that day. Nvidia fell 4.2%. Apple has kept a lid on AI capex, and it is up 27% this year.

Then Monday’s earnings, John Ternus’s first as CEO:

  • $114.5B revenue, up 12%. A September-quarter record.
  • $2.10 EPS, up 14%, including $0.05 from tariff refunds.
  • $479B fiscal-year revenue, an all-time record.

The quarter ended Sept 26, before the foldable iPhone Duo shipped. It’s sold out and shipping into next year. “It’s really hard to predict when supply and demand will be in balance,” COO Sabih Khan said, per TechCrunch. Analysts kept asking about memory prices, pushed up by AI demand. Apple says it raised some prices “reluctantly.”

Claude Code stops cloning games#

Anthropic added two sentences to Claude Code’s prompt on Opus 5.5 to stop it recreating “someone else’s specific game,” Anthropic’s Addy Osmani confirmed on X. The rule text users found: build original games, genre games and games from your own assets, but not a recreation of a specific existing game, “even if it is renamed or called original.” XDA found it in Claude Code v2.1.314.

The complaint is collateral damage. Developers report refusals on paid client work and on routine reverse engineering, per Tom’s Hardware. Osmani’s offer: if Claude refuses something that’s yours, send it to him.

Meanwhile DeepSeek open-sourced dsh-superagent, a coding agent built to need as little human attention as possible. It watches one GitHub repo, takes requests from approved people, works quietly, and comes back with a pull request or a question. DeepSeek calls it research code, not a product. It passed 14,000 GitHub stars since going up on Oct 31.

Quick hits#

  • InvestAnswers poll. IA asked patrons whether to swap the Monday BTC/MSTR video for weekly trade-setup research, since BTC and MSTR have been quiet. Most commenters backed the setups.
  • Mathematicians. In an MIT students’ survey of 268 grad students and postdocs, 75.5% said their odds of staying in academic math have dropped, per Business Insider via Superintelligence.
  • Midterms today. Polls close tonight US time, early Wednesday in Helsinki.

Sources#